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再读再译回忆:世界炼油业五大新趋势  

2017-03-13 15:49:29|  分类: 译员艺苑 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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再读再译回忆:世界炼油业五大新趋势 - chenglinpld - chenglinpld 的博客温故而知新,学而时习之。关注石油石化炼油液,750万大学毕业生就业需要如何追踪发展空间,2013-12-12--2017年回看4年发展统计数据;您如何评价两会中国三大公司的市场发展需求,统计期货和海外订货,看股票市场行情发展规律,特别是的与石油石化发展密切关联的工业行情期货股票,金融动向指导?大学高校石油勘探开采和炼制的化工类毕业生走向何处?再读再译回忆:世界炼油业五大新趋势 - chenglinpld - chenglinpld 的博客

世界炼油业五大新趋势

Five new trends in world oil refining industry

世界炼油业出现五大发展趋势:原油供应多极化,炼油格局加速调整,炼厂规模继续扩大,原油重质劣质化,清洁燃料标准加速升级。

There are five major trends of world oil refining industry: oil supply pattern of multi polarization, accelerate the adjustment of oil refining, crude oil refinery scale continues to expand, heavy and poor quality, accelerate the upgrading of clean fuel standards.

当前全球经济总体上仍处于缓慢复苏态势,但主要经济体增长分化明显,下行风险依然存在。据国际货币基金组织(IMF)20137月发布的《世界经济展望》统计和预测,2012年世界经济增长率相比20113.8%的增速有所降低,但仍达到3.1%,其中新兴和发展中经济体的GDP增速为4.9%,发达经济体的GDP增速为1.2%。国际机构普遍对未来世界宏观经济发展的预期并不乐观,预计中国的GDP增长率与2012年持平,仍是全球经济增长的亮点。随着世界经济形势的变化,全球炼油业发展出现了一些新变化、新趋势,值得高度关注。

The current global economy as a whole is still in a slow recovery trend, but the growth of major economies differentiation obvious downside risks remain. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released in July 2013 "world economic outlook" statistics and forecasts, in 2012 the world's economic growth rate of 3.8% compared to 2011 growth rate decreased, but still reached 3.1%, the emerging and developing economies of the GDP growth rate of 4.9%, GDP growth in developed economies is 1.2%. International institutions are generally not optimistic about the future of the world's economic development, China's GDP growth rate is expected to remain unchanged in 2012, is still the highlight of global economic growth. With the change of the world economic situation, there are some new changes and new trends in the global oil refining industry.

原油供应多极化

Multi polarization of crude oil supply

地处西半球的美国、加拿大、委内瑞拉等美洲国家石油储产量近年来大幅增长,正逐步成为继中东之后全球油气勘探开发的新兴热点区域。根据美国《油气杂志》统计,受益于近年来页岩油气的发展,2012年美国石油产量达到创纪录的3.165亿吨,比2011年增长11.8%,是美国石油业1859年以来最快的年均增速,年产量紧跟俄罗斯和沙特阿拉伯之后,位列世界第三。而加拿大依靠丰富的油砂资源,其石油储量已跃至全球第三位,达到237.83亿吨,石油产量达到1.55亿吨,比上年增长6.6%。委内瑞拉凭借其巨大的重油和超重原油资源,已取代沙特成为全球探明石油储量最大的国家,2012年的探明储量达到407.63亿吨,比上年发布的统计数值增长了40.91%

Located in the Western Hemisphere, the United States, Canada, Venezuela and other countries in the United States oil storage output growth in recent years, is gradually becoming a new hot spot of global oil and gas exploration and development in the middle east. According to the "oil and gas" magazine statistics, in recent years, benefiting from the development of shale oil and gas, 2012 U.S. oil production reached a record 3.165 tons, growth of 11.8% in 2011, the average annual growth rate of the American petroleum industry is the fastest since 1859, after the annual output by Russia and Saudi Arabia, ranked third in the world. While Canada relies on rich oil sands resources, its oil reserves have jumped to third place in the world, reaching 237.83 tons, oil production reached 1.55 tons, an increase of over the previous year by 6.6%. Venezuela with its huge heavy oil and heavy oil resources, has overtaken Saudi Arabia as the world's proven oil reserves of the largest country in 2012 proved reserves reached 407.63 tons over the previous year, statistics released increased 40.91%.

石油生产格局的变化将从多方面影响全球经济运行。以美国为代表的美洲国家在油气市场中“话语权”的增加,使全球油气生产多极化格局得以强化和发展。全球石油生产重心西移,美国油气产量增长、能源自给率提升,也进一步增强了美国对全球经济的控制力,同时也为我国和印度等发展中国家的石油进口开辟多元化油气供应渠道创造了条件,对保障能源安全将产生积极的影响。

Changes in the pattern of oil production will affect the global economy in many ways. In the United States as the representative of the United States in the oil and gas market, the increase in the right to speak, so that the global oil and gas production to strengthen the multi polarization pattern and development. Shift the focus of global oil production, the oil and gas production growth, energy self-sufficiency rate increase, but also further enhance the United States on the global economy control, but also create conditions for developing countries such as China and India's oil imports diversified oil and gas supply, will have a positive impact on energy security.

世界炼油格局加速调整

World oil refining pattern adjustment

伴随着石油生产重心的西移,全球石油消费重心和炼油发展中心进一步转移至东半球国家,中国、印度等发展中国家的石油需求增长成为主要推动力。

With the shift of the center of gravity of oil production, the global oil consumption center and the oil refining development center have been further transferred to the eastern hemisphere countries, and the oil demand growth in developing countries such as China and India has become the main driving force.

近年世界石油需求增长主要来自非经合组织国家,最主要是亚洲国家。而经合组织(OECD)国家的石油需求仍然处于疲软状态,尤其是欧洲石油需求处于下降趋势。根据国际能源机构(IEA)的统计,2012年全球石油需求为8994万桶/日,比2011年增长1.2%。亚太国家2012年石油消费量增幅最大,增长100万桶/日,达到2950万桶/日,约占世界石油需求总量的32.9%。预计2013年全球石油需求达到9070万桶/日,增长1%;其中亚洲国家消费量为2990万桶/日,年增速为1.4%。亚洲石油需求增幅大大超过全球石油需求增长速度。我国2012年的石油消费量达到960万桶/日,比上年增长4%,预计我国2013年石油需求达到998万桶/日,增长4%;印度达到375万桶/日,增长2.7%。中国、印度等新兴经济体成为世界石油需求增长的主要贡献者。

In recent years, the world oil demand growth mainly comes from non OECD countries, mainly Asian countries. The oil demand of the OECD is still weak, especially in europe. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) statistics, in 2012 global oil demand for 89 million 940 thousand barrels / day, an increase of more than in 2011 of 1.2%. Asia Pacific countries in 2012 the largest increase in oil consumption, an increase of 1 million barrels / day, reaching 29 million 500 thousand barrels / day, accounting for about 32.9% of the world's total oil demand. Global oil demand in 2013 is expected to reach 90 million 700 thousand barrels / day, an increase of 1%, of which Asian countries consumption of 29 million 900 thousand barrels / day, an annual growth rate of 1.4%. Asia's oil demand growth has greatly exceeded the growth rate of global oil demand. China's oil consumption in 2012 reached 9 million 600 thousand barrels / day, an increase of 4% over the previous year, China's oil demand in 2013 is expected to reach 9 million 980 thousand barrels / day, an increase of 4%; India reached 3 million 750 thousand barrels / day, an increase of 2.7%. Emerging economies such as China and India are the main contributors to world oil demand growth.

全球新建炼油厂绝大部分位于亚洲和中东,欧美炼厂关闭和出售的事件频现。据美国《油气杂志》最新统计,截至2012年底,全球炼油总能力达到44.48亿吨/年,较上年增长4550万吨,增速为1%,相比20110.2%的负增长有了明显的回升。炼油能力的回升主要是由于亚洲炼油能力的增长,亚洲地区的炼油能力2012年增长了3600万吨,达到12.82亿吨/年,约占全球总能力的28.8%,高于北美,稳居世界第一(见表1)

The vast majority of global new refineries in Asia and the Middle East, Europe and the United States refinery to close and sell events. According to the "oil and gas journal" the latest statistics, as of the end of 2012, total global refining capacity reached 44.48 tons / year, representing an increase of 45 million 500 thousand tons, the growth rate was 1%, compared to a negative growth of 0.2% in 2011 has increased. The refining capacity of the rebound was mainly due to the Asian refining capacity growth, Asia's refining capacity in 2012 increased by 36 million tons, reaching 12.82 tons / year, accounting for about 28.8% of the total global capacity, higher than America, ranked first in the world (see Table 1).

炼厂规模继续扩大

The refinery continues to expand the scale

据美国《油气杂志》统计,截至2012年底,全球共有655座炼厂,平均规模达到679万吨/年,与2003年相比,炼厂数量减少9%,但平均规模扩大了19%;单厂规模持续增加,由572万吨/年上升到679万吨/年。排名世界前十的10家炼油公司的炼油能力达到16.5亿吨/年,占全球总能力的37%。规模在2000万吨/年以上的炼厂达到22(见表2)。委内瑞拉石油公司Paraguana炼油中心以4700万吨/年的炼油能力成为世界最大的炼厂。在全球最大的10个炼厂名单中,有8个炼厂位于亚洲和中东。我国的中国石油大连石化和中国石化镇海炼化的炼油能力均已超过2000万吨/年,中国石油和中国石化都已跻身世界十大炼油商之列。

According to the "oil and gas" magazine statistics, as of the end of 2012, a total of 655 refineries in the world, the average reached 6 million 790 thousand tons / year, compared with 2003, the refinery to reduce the number of 9%, but the average scale of 19%; single plant scale continued to increase, rising from 5 million 720 thousand tons to 6 million 790 thousand tons / year. Ranked ten in the world's top 10 Oil Refinery Co refining capacity of up to 1 billion 650 million tons / year, accounting for the global total capacity of 37%. The size of more than 20 million tons / year refinery reached 22 (see Table 2). The Venezuelan oil company Paraguana oil center to become the world's largest refinery refining capacity to 47 million tons / year. In 10 of the world's largest refinery in the list, there are 8 refineries in Asia and the middle east. China's China Dalian petrochemical and Zhenhai Refining capacity of Sinopec have been more than 20 million tons / year, Chinese oil and Sinopec have been among the world's ten biggest oil refiner list.

预计未来几年,世界新建炼油项目仍主要集中在亚洲和中东地区,欧美地区的炼油业务调整和重组还将继续,这促使世界石油石化工业的发展重心加速向具有市场潜在优势的亚洲和中东地区转移。

The next few years, the world's new oil refining project is still mainly concentrated in Asia and the Middle East, refining business restructuring and reorganization in Europe and the United States will continue the development center of world petroleum and petrochemical industry to accelerate the transfer to the potential market in Asia and the middle east.

原油重质劣质化趋势明显

The trend of crude oil quality is obvious

世界常规石油资源的储量约为4万亿桶,而非常规石油资源(重油、超重油和油砂沥青等)的储量接近8万亿桶。从世界石油资源剩余储量来看,高硫、重质等劣质原油比例在逐年上升。世界原油质量总的变化趋势是,低硫和轻质原油产量不断减少,而含硫、重质原油的产量在逐年增加。世界原油平均API度将由2011年的33.1下降到2035年的32.6,平均硫含量将由2011年的1.15%提高到2035年的1.33%API<22的重油产量将从2011年的990万桶/日增加到20351630万桶/日,在原油中的比例将从2011年的13%增加到2020年的18%(见表3)

The world's conventional oil reserves of about 4 trillion barrels, rather than conventional oil resources (heavy oil, heavy oil and oil sands bitumen, etc.) reserves of nearly 8 trillion barrels. From the world's remaining reserves of oil resources, the proportion of high sulfur, heavy crude oil and other crude oil is increasing year by year. The general trend of world crude oil quality, low sulfur and light oil yield decreased, while the sulfur, heavy crude oil production increased year by year. The average API of crude oil in the world will drop from 33.1 in 2011 to about 32.6 in 2035. The average sulfur content will be increased from 2011 to 1.15% by the year of 2035 to 1.33%. API <22 of heavy oil production will increase from 9 million 900 thousand barrels / day in 2011 to 2035 barrels / day, the proportion of crude oil will increase from 13% in 2011 to about $18% in 2020 (see Table 3).

据美国地质调查局统计,全世界重质原油储量约为3万亿桶,其中可采储量为4340亿桶。由于开采技术尚不成熟,重质原油开发进度缓慢,难度较大。许多咨询公司认为,当前中东地区主要油田超过一半的石油储量已被开采,产量开始下降,易开采石油的时代即将结束。加拿大、美国等国纷纷投入超重油、油砂的开采,甚至如沙特、科威特等产油大国也加入了重质原油开发的大潮。其中委内瑞拉超重油和加拿大油砂沥青是发展较快的两种重油资源。

According to the U.S. Geological Survey, the world's crude oil reserves of about 3 trillion barrels, of which recoverable reserves of 434 billion barrels. As the mining technology is not mature, the development of heavy crude oil is slow and difficult. Many consultants believe that more than half of the major oil fields in the Middle East have been mined, production has begun to decline, and the era of oil exploration is coming to an end. Canada, the United States and other countries have invested in ultra heavy oil, oil sands mining, and even Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and other oil producing countries have joined the tide of heavy oil development. The super heavy oil in Venezuela and the oil sands in Canada are two kinds of heavy oil resources.

清洁燃料标准加速升级

Clean fuel standard acceleration

随着对环境要求的不断提高,世界各国对炼化产品的质量与环保要求日趋严格。车用清洁燃料标准已经发生很大变化,且仍在继续升级换代。最重要的指标是汽油和柴油的硫含量、苯含量和芳烃含量。总体来看,全球各国标准中的主要指标趋向一致,质量升级速度在加快。

With the continuous improvement of environmental requirements, the world is becoming more and more strict requirements of environmental protection and quality of refining products. Vehicle clean fuel standards have changed greatly, and are still upgrading. The most important indicators are sulfur content, benzene content and aromatic hydrocarbon content in gasoline and diesel oil. Overall, the main indicators of national standards in the world tend to be consistent, the quality of the upgrade speed.

美国目前在执行中的清洁汽油的标准是硫含量≤30ppm,欧洲标准是硫含量≤10ppm。美国和欧洲的清洁柴油标准硫含量分别是≤15ppm和≤10ppm。发展中国家的清洁燃料也在升级换代。中国正在执行的国3汽柴油标准的硫含量分别是≤150ppm和≤300ppm。北京已经于2012531日起率先实施京5汽柴油标准,汽柴油硫含量不大于10ppm

At present the United States in the implementation of clean gasoline standards is the sulfur content is less than 30ppm, the European standard is the sulfur content is less than 10ppm. The United States and European standards of clean diesel sulfur content is less than or equal to 15ppm and less than 10ppm respectively. Clean fuels in developing countries are also upgrading. The sulfur content of Chinese is the executive country 3 gasoline and diesel standards are less than or equal to 150ppm and less than 300ppm. Beijing has taken the lead in the implementation of the Beijing 5 gasoline and diesel standards in May 31, 2012, gasoline and diesel sulfur content is not greater than 10ppm.

随着汽车保有量快速增长,汽车尾气排放对大气污染的影响日益增加,特别是近年来我国大范围持续出现的雾霾天气,更是引发了社会对油品质量升级的关注。我国近期将发布国4车用柴油标准(硫含量不大于50ppm),实施过渡期至2014年底;20136月底前发布国5车用柴油标准(硫含量不大于10ppm)2013年底前发布国5汽油标准(硫含量不大于10ppm),实施过渡期均至2017年底。

With the rapid growth of car ownership, car exhaust effect on air pollution is increasing, especially in recent years, the scope of our country's persistent fog and haze, more is to upgrade the quality of oil caused social concern. China will publish in the recent 4 diesel standard (sulfur content not greater than 50ppm), the implementation of the transition period to the end of 2014; released in June 2013 before the end of 5 diesel standard (sulfur content not greater than 10ppm), released in 2013 before the end of 5 standard gasoline (sulfur content not greater than 10ppm), the implementation of the transition period to the end of 2017.

预计到2015年,全球消费84%的汽油是含硫量≤50ppm的超低硫汽油;到2020年,72%的汽油是含硫量≤10ppm的无硫汽油,对>500ppm汽油的需求几乎消失。在车用柴油方面,到2011年,欧洲和北美绝大多数消费的都是≤15ppm超低硫柴油,亚洲的OECD国家也使用≤10ppm的车用柴油;到2015年,所有发展中国家年全球消费的低硫和超低硫柴油将由目前的65%上升到75%

It is expected that by 2015, global consumption of gasoline is 84% ultra low sulfur gasoline sulfur content less than 50ppm; by 2020, 72% of the gasoline sulfur free gasoline sulfur content is less than or equal to 10ppm and 500ppm, on demand for gasoline almost disappeared. In the diesel engine, by 2011, most of the European and North American consumption is less than 15ppm for ultra low sulfur diesel, diesel OECD Asian countries use the car less than 10ppm; by 2015, global consumption of all developing countries of low sulfur and ultra-low sulfur diesel will rise from the current 65% to 75%.

当前,我国正处于从炼油大国向炼油强国的转变时期,炼油能力从2006年的3.69亿吨/年增长到2012年的5.75亿吨/年,仅次于美国,位居世界第二。根据国家《石化和化学工业“十二五”发展规划》,“十二五”期间,我国石化行业将保持平稳较快增长,年均增长速度保持在13%左右,到2015年,原油加工能力将达到6亿吨/年。我国炼油工业迎来了重要的战略发展机遇期,但仍面临着原油资源供应日趋紧张、原油品质重劣质化、环保要求趋严等严峻挑战,必须借鉴国际先进经验,积极采取扩大原油来源,实现渠道多极化和资源多元化,提高重油深加工能力,加快清洁燃料质量升级换代等相应对策。

At present, China is in a period of transition from oil refining to oil refining power, refining capacity from 3.69 tons / year in 2006 to grow to 2012 of 575 million tons / year, second only to the United States, ranking the world's top second. According to the "national petrochemical and chemical industry" 12th Five-Year "development plan", "12th Five-Year" period, China's petrochemical industry will maintain steady and rapid growth, the average annual growth rate remained at around 13%, to 2015, crude oil processing capacity will reach 600 million tons / year. China's oil refining industry ushered in an important period of strategic opportunities for development, but still face the supply of crude oil resources become increasingly tense, heavy crude oil quality poor, tighter environmental requirements and other challenges, we must learn from the international advanced experience, and actively take to expand the source of crude oil, the channel to achieve multi polarization and diversification of resources, improve the heavy oil processing capacity, speed up clean fuel quality upgrading countermeasures.

--再读再译回忆:世界炼油业五大新趋势 - chenglinpld - chenglinpld 的博客

 再读再译回忆:世界炼油业五大新趋势 - chenglinpld - chenglinpld 的博客再读再译回忆:世界炼油业五大新趋势 - chenglinpld - chenglinpld 的博客
  
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